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====== The End of Democracy: My Prediction in 2025 ======

Sometimes people ask me for my prediction for the future of our country. I imagine that they are annoyed when I don't give them a straight answer. I think about history as a series of decision points, and that what happens is a result of whatever happens at those decision points. So, I usually give a variety of different predictions, based on what happens at these decision points.

My last such prediction was before the 2024 election. I had two predictions for the path that America could go down, depending on who was elected. I predicted that if the Democrats won, there would be a period of intense social unrest, chaos, and destabilization, which I called **the black state**. I also predicted that if the Republicans won, it would be curtains for democracy and so-called "liberal values", such as freedom of speech, freedom of the press, habeas corpus, etc, which I called **the grey state**. 

Obviously, the Republicans won, and therefore, I think we are headed towards the grey state. I think that a number of things could happen, but at this point I think that the most likely thing to happen is that the ideal of democracy will effectively end. Most people will stop believing it, and the government will become more and more authoritarian. 

I hesitate to write this all down, because I believe that such predictions can become self-fulfilling prophecies. I believe that countries can develop a "suicidal urge", a belief that the country *must* end... but I don't necessarily think this is true. I think that We The People can decide to sustain the blessing of democracy, but that it will take a lot of effort. I encourage all of my readers to cast off apathy and decide to stand up for what they believe in.

Consider this a warning about what might happen if we don't do better. If you read nothing else here, please read my conclusion.

One more thing: I am a loose political centrist. It might seem that I am very critical of Republicans while being gentle towards the Democrats. It is true that I think that the modern Republican party is devastatingly bad. However, I am not a Democrat. Indeed, I have traditionally been quite critical of the illiberal progressivism of the so-called woke left. This was one of the major reasons that I supported Trump wholeheartedly in 2016 (the other being that I was young and foolish). I now see the truth: The threat of illiberal conservatism entirely eclipses the threat of illiberal progressivism. I won't make that case in this article, however. 
====== Two Futures ======
I foresee two futures:
  * **Right-wing oligarchy**: A cabal of people affiliated with Trump assume complete control over the United States. The state becomes a farce, a facade in which cronies elect other cronies.
  * **Pseudo-liberal oligarchy**: "In order to protect democracy", some Democrats will say, "we must end democracy". The fact that Trump was able to be elected president of the country will be used as evidence that there is a fundamental flaw in democracy.

Worldwide, regardless of what happens, countries will begin to clamp down on the rights of their citizens. China will grow in power as people become apathetic about "liberal values" as a result. China will become the most powerful country in the world. At that point, we will be "locked in" -- nothing can or will change for many, many years.

====== Decision Point: The 2026 Election ======

All of this will be decided by the outcome of the 2026 election. I don't mean who will be elected -- rather, I mean how the Trump regime will react.

I project that in the 2026 midterm elections Democrats will sweep the nation. In fact, I project that even formerly red states will swing blue. I think this because, at the time of writing, Trumps tariffs seem to be hurting farmers quite a bit.

I genuinely think there is a good chance that Trump will attempt to claim that these results were fraudulent, and instruct displaced legislators to remain in office. I am not sure he will do this, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he did. That’s why I have declared this to be the decision point.

===== Why the Democrats will win in 2026 ===== 

First, let me explain why I think Trump won in 2024. I don't think Trump won because people genuinely liked Trump. Instead, I think that Trump won for one very simple reason -- the economy was somewhat bad during some parts of Biden's presidency. This is not a political statement. I am not claiming that Biden enacted specific policies that caused the economy to be bad, I am simply claiming that it was bad at some parts of his presidency.

Wealth seems to be the single biggest predictor of well-being. People naturally want to exist in an environment where they can make a lot of money, and will vote to produce such an environment. I should point out, however, that average people seem to be very bad at evaluating how good or bad the economy actually is. A fascinating study showed that people on average thought that *they* were doing better than their peers financially, but that *most people* were not doing well. Obviously this cannot be true -- most people cannot be better than most people. 

So, people remembered fondly the strong economy that they had under Trump and said, well, geez, things sure were better back then, we better vote for him again. And so Trump came into power.

Regardless of what you politically feel about Trump, it is very clear to me that in the first few months of his regime he has made a number of huge economic missteps. From starting nonsensical trade wars with former allies, to Elon Musk defunding (or attempting to defund) institutions that protect consumers financially (such as the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau and the FDIC), things have been an absolute disaster, even for people in Red States. I predict that things will steadily get worse and worse until your average voter will feel the sting.

I think this is all happening because Trump, in his first term, was surrounded by very smart and capable policy makers in his cabinet. The democrats of course disagreed with them, but they were still pretty much business as usual for the White House. What happened over time was that his cabinet kept getting in his way, and so he kept "firing" them, until it was just him. This was the cause of the never-ending clown show of the first term.

When Biden took over in 2020, Trump had four years to mull over his "failures". In his mind, his biggest problem was that he surrounded with people that didn't acquiesce to his every demand and whim. So, he set out to find a new cabinet of yes-men who would never get in his way. 

The way I think about the executive branch is that while we think we are voting for some smiling figure, we are really voting for a political machine which is headed by that figure, but who mostly stays out of the way and lets the machine operate autonomously. This is why Biden's apparent mental decline didn't really matter -- because it was never really Biden running the show, but rather many, many people beneath him who were suggesting policies. All Biden had to do was OK them (or go talk to his advisors). 

This is not a perfect system, but it is pretty good at maintaining the status quo -- which, for all of its flaws, is still the best status quo anywhere in the world, or at any time in history. Americans often forget how good they have it. I urge anyone who thinks that they have it bad to compare their quality of life with people in, say, Great Britain. We are, all of us, in the 1% of the planet.

This system is what Trump calls "The Deep State" or "The Swamp". He wasn't able to fight it in his first term because he didn't really understand what it was or why it existed, and that it was an extension of his cabinet. This time, he's back, and he isn't screwing around. The "Deep State" is really, for real, getting axed and there's not a darn thing any of us can do about it. 

Trump's alternative to the Deep State is not a more democratic system, but rather a system of direct control of the entire Executive Branch, with no-one ever telling him "this is a bad idea, you can't do this". Without making a direct statement about Trump, let me propose this: No-one is smart enough to single-handedly understand and run the country. Thus, when we have a man in office who thinks that he *is* smart enough to do so, the only possible consequence is complete disaster.

Indeed, by the year 2026, I imagine that even the most die-hard MAGA republican will feel at least a bit weary. Meanwhile, protests and general angst will grow. Again, ideology aside, the main thing your average voter cares about is “is the economy getting better or worse”, and the economy will be pretty bad by that point.

===== Scenario: Trump Coup =====

There’s actually another decision point under this decision point, which is whether or not people care about the results of the midterm elections. Most people don’t, but I think that this would be so egregious that most everyone would be upset.

This would be the most egregious act against democracy in our country’s history, but, more importantly, it would mean that an ineffective leader would stay in power (remember, people only care about the economy). Millions of people would storm into the streets, riots would ensue across the nation. It would be complete bedlam.

In response, Trump will mobilize the national guard against protestors. Using the pretense that  these are violent protests and that he needs to keep the people safe, there will be a huge reduction in our civil liberties. “Agitators” and “Instigators” will be whisked away and held without cause. Troops will fire on protestors.

The protests will die down eventually… your average American will not even care. However this will be a very significant moment in his career — it will be the moment where he learns that he can literally do whatever he wants and there will be very minimal consequences. 

From that point on, it is entirely possible that Trump will "call off" the 2028 election, or that a similar farce will occur where one of his cronies runs and Trump declares the result of the election invalid due to tampering. The cronies will probably be a part of the NRx and will create the new American order of complete control.

==== The case for the coup ====

This seems so outlandish that it would never happen, but I have a few reasons for thinking that it might.

First of all, recall that in the 2020 election he did the exact same thing, staying in power until literally the last moment. He quite possibly only stepped down because his VP, Mike Pence, was against the nonsense with him staying in office. Now that his cabinet is filled with Yes-Men, all bets are off.

It's unclear what Trump thinks is going on in the world, or if he is just cynically trying to remain in power. I don't know how he reconciles the idea that he was cheated out of the 2020 presidency with the fact that he won in 2024. I'm sure it's some "the power of love" type nonsense. Anyways, he and his gang genuinely do believe that the Democrats do this.

Secondly, I think Trump is getting addicted to the feeling of absolute authority, and I think giving it up will be very difficult for him. This is a person that has basically restructured the entire government to control everything. He has a majority in the legislature, has removed anyone who is not a loyalist in the executive branch, and has declared that he has the absolute authority to interpret the law for the entire executive branch, rendering the judicial branch (and the legislative branch) vestigial. I'm genuinely not sure if the other branches can even control the executive branch anymore or if they are just a rubber stamp brigade.

Democrats in the House and Senate will challenge his authority, and Trump does not like to be challenged.

Thirdly, Trump has made statements such as "He who saves his country violates no laws", asserting that he is above the law. Trump likely already believes that he can, and should, exercise complete control by ignoring processes and procedures.

Fourthly, Trump is dangerously close to a cabal of individuals who are trying to end democracy -- the so-called "Neo-reactionary Right". This group of people is, as far as I can tell, the only "intellectual center" of the modern right. I can imagine Elon Musk becoming enamored with this group, with it's veneer of technologism. I worry that these people are creeping into Washington with flattery and gently suggesting taking absolute control, possibly in hopes that they will be part of the coming oligarchy. 

Fifth, I genuinely think that Trump and Elon's mental states are in decline. Keep in mind, Trump is 78 years old, just four year younger than Joe Biden. This may be a cause of his changing tone. Meanwhile, Elon Musk is almost certainly experiencing some kind of extended ketamine-induced psychosis. Musk, who was already a few bricks shy of a load, is a known abuser of ketamine, and a look over his past career shows that this descent into right-wing politics was incredibly sudden and drastic. As general animosity increases, so too will their paranoia.

Sixth, there is a parallel information economy in the right. It is entirely possible that they could convince themselves that this is a necessary course of action. 

Again, my point is not that this **will** happen, just that it **could** happen.

==== What would Right-Wing Oligarchy look like? ====

Some people think that a right-wing oligarchy would look like the world of The Handmaiden's Tale, where women lose their rights and are used only as subservient breeding stock. The problem with a book like the Handmaid's Tale is that the fictional society is centered around the treatment of women. The book is so focused on women (because it is trying to make a point) that it completely ignores everything else.

What it would really look like is a completely stupid country that is incapable of doing absolutely anything of note. It would look like Russia where the entire country is looted continuously by the people in power. Standards of living would continuously go down for the middle and lower class, while the wealthy would get exponentially richer.

Although the regime would be quite oppressive /in theory/, it's ability to oppress would be limited as the institution of government would be completely scrapped. There won't be a high-tech surveillance apparatus making sure that people are living within carefully defined gender-roles -- instead a cop would continuously extort you and threaten to send you away for deviance. 

Trash will pile up on the street as trash collectors miss payments. Structures will collapse randomly. Organized crime will grow in power. No-one will be able to trust each other.

Throughout all of this, we will look to China, wishing that we lived in that glorious land where the institution of government still (sort of) worked. "In China", people will grumble, "they never go hungry or have brownouts". In turn, Chinese corporations will settle in America. The Chinese government will pour billions into infrastructure projects here, increasing goodwill towards them.

Over time we will become a vassal state of China, as will much of the world. We will be a poor country, but we will be okay, as many Chinese people are, not even mourning the loss of our freedom. When the government does something oppressive to an individual, we'll shrug our shoulders and say "Eh, they probably deserved it".
===== Scenario: No Coup =====

In the no-coup timeline, Trump does not meaningfully prevent Democrats from taking control, or quickly folds under pressure. This will be the effective end of Trump's period of absolute control over the American government, unless he decides to do more things to interfere with congress. It will be two years of cat-fights between Congress and Trump. This will be an incredibly stupid time. It will also be very funny, if you are into drama. 

In the 2028 election, Republicans will likely choose a Trump-like figure as their candidate. This, however, will fail, and Republicans will lose the 2028 election. This will happen for two reasons:
  * Firstly, no-one can replace Trump. There is no person eligible to replace him. JD Vance, while the most obvious contender, simply lacks the energy that Trump brings. Elon Musk is a foreigner, and thus disqualified in the constitution. I thought it would be Vivek Ramaswamy, but his comments on the laziness of the white man did not go over well with the Republicans. I now think it is most likely to be Ron Desantis, but even he can't match Trump. 
  * Secondly, I think the Republican party is vastly overestimating how much people like MAGA people. I think there are far more people that just went along with it because they wanted the economy to do well. Keep in mind that four years of Trump was enough to motivate voters to vote against giving him a second term. 

With Democrats in power, a reconstruction phase will begin. The government will be returned to the state that it was in before Trump took power. There will also be a general sense that democracy has failed and will likely fail again, because the people are too stupid to uphold it, and that there need to be "stewards" to safeguard it. Thus, there will be a slow and methodical dismantling of American democracy. This will probably take years.

People will mostly be okay with it because things will have gotten so bad that they will see any improvements as good. They won't notice until it's too late that they have lost their freedom -- if they ever notice at all. The loss of freedom won't be dramatic, there won't be any bloodshed or riots about it. However, we will slowly go from being a shining beacon of freedom to a more European approach, where freedom comes second after "maximizing public good".

For instance, the government will institute penalties for "hate speech". I'm sure that my readers know that the definition of "hate speech" is so vast and nebulous as to mean practically anything, allowing the government to repress any ideas that fall outside of traditionally socially acceptable ones. 

After WWII, the rise of fascism and it's signs were well-studied and informed the future of policy-making and philosophical thought all over the world. The same is true for other historical collapses, such as the collapse of the Roman Empire -- these become legendary failures that were studied for generations. The same, I think, will be true of the Trump administration, and other far-right political groups across the world. The "lesson" that will be learned is that democracy and freedom simply do not work, and are failed ideas. The individual should not have rights, as they will hurt themselves with it.

Future generations will look back on us and wonder why we thought it was a good idea that uneducated and uninformed people should make policy decisions. Democracy will, at that point, not have any defenders left, so the only answer would be that hindsight is 20/20. 

==== Won't Trump Stay in Power? ====

I know it is odd that I say that Trump will stay in power past 2028 if he refuses to recognize Democrats in the 2026 primaries, but not if he doesn't. The reason for this is that Trump, right now, seems to be obsessed with "fairness". What offended him about the 2020 election results was that he thought he was getting cheated out of what was "owed" to him, which was two terms of being president. Since he isn't "owed" a third term, he probably doesn't think he should take it.

Likewise, Trump thinks he is "owed" complete control of Congress (and that if he were given a fair shot it would happen, because everyone loves him, "Vox Populi", etc). Thus he is more likely to use his power at this point, because he is just protecting what he is "owed" (and likewise what the "silent majority" wants).

When the inevitable riots break out, and Trump uses the nation guard to suppress them, subtly his regime will have changed from having power because it was legitimately bestowed upon him, to him having power because no-one can do anything about it. At that point it would almost start to feel silly to willingly give it up. (It would feel like the scene in Monty Python and the Holy Grail where the peasants say "I didn't vote for you!")

I think of it in terms of "gumption". It would take a lot more gumption to start swinging your weight around in 2028 in the hopes of getting a third term than it would to start with the pretense of being treated unfairly in 2026. 

Additionally, having control of Congress between 2026 and 2028 will give it time to lay the foundation for Trump to "legally" serve a third term. 

====== Confounding Factors ======

There are some things that //could// happen but that no one really knows if they //will// happen.

===== Trump gets assassinated =====

It almost seems inevitable that this will happen. We are a country of gun owners, and, sooner or later, someone's going to try to shoot him. Whether it hits or misses is anyone's guess, of course -- I'm not //literally// Nostradamus.

If this happens it will essentially be the end of MAGA. As I noted above, no-one can replace Trump. The entire movement would collapse without him. JD Vance would take over, of course, but he wouldn't be nearly as effective as Trump was. I predict that America would go down the same route as in the "no coup" timeline.

I put this under confounding factors because it would be an event that happens outside the normal "flow" of history, whatever that means. That said, if I were a betting man, I would put money on Trump being dead by 2028. I give it 60/40 odds.

===== Artificial Super-Intelligence =====
In the background, another drama is unfolding - AI. AI will not just be another technology but will usher in a complete change to the social order. It is conceivable that, in the future, people won't work, and robots will do everything, from growing crops to stocking shelves to writing code.

I don't know if this will happen, and frankly no-one can predict whether it could happen or not. Such a prediction would by nature be based off of incomplete information. 

====== Sub-prediction: The Future of MAGA ======

I didn't want to make a separate article for this, despite it being a different focus, but I would like to predict what will happen in the future of the MAGA ideology. I project that this movement will have a pretty dramatic schism in coming years (probably around 2028). The divide will be between what I call the "moralists" and the "amoralists".

The "moralists" will be similar to traditional conservatives, who think that the government should institute moral rules to preserve a certain social order. This would include such things as banning gay marriage, pornography, and sex outside of marriage. The "amoralists", on the other hand, will be similar to libertarians, resisting all rules, even rules that are by liberal standards considered to be good, including pedophilia and rape. I have dubbed this theoretical group of amoralists the "Satanic Hyper-Pedophiles". This group will likely view acts of evil as a form of political praxis.

This prediction is based on a political theory that I have, called //Shadow Politics//. The basic idea of Shadow Politics is that the main thing that political groups are trying to do is to perpetuate their own existence, not to effectuate political change. They do this by carefully balancing wins and losses to maintain enough controversy to keep them relevant. At times they will project their own "shadow self" onto the world, manifesting their own worst enemy. I believe this is the real reason that fascism is coming back in this country: It was the shadow of leftism.

The shadow of the right is not leftism. Rather, it is what could be termed as "degeneracy", which they view to be an element of leftism. Thus, the future culture war will not be between right-wingers and leftists, but rather between the pure manifestation of degeneracy and the resistance to said degeneracy.

//(I should clarify that I do not believe this group of people could have existed without the right creating them. This is an example of my theory of the cycle of authoritarianism: Power inadvertently creates a problem, and the existence of the problem causes authoritarians to believe they need more power, which creates even more problems. The same thing is true of liberals. If the democrats regain power, their takeaway from the rise of Trump will be that they need to use //more// power, not less, which will only make the situation worse.)//

Already, the seeds for this conflict have been planted. Voices such as Andrew Tate are part of the "amoral right", advocating for war against society and rape, while organizations such as the Heritage Foundation form the backbone of the "moral right", advocating for restrictions to be placed on "degenerate behavior". Aesthetic fascists find themselves between both parties, sometimes appearing more amoral, sometimes appearing more moral.

Furthermore, consider that what we consider "woke leftism" is merely a blurry picture of the last 2000 years of cultural development, arguably beginning with Christ. Thus, to the amoralists, the problem isn't the radical Left, but rather Christ himself. This, too, already is happening in small corners of the culture. Some neo-fascists have declared that the Christians are deceived by the Jewish lie of the Bible, and that they are all worshipping a lie crafted to enslave the white man, while others shoot back that, no, Jesus totally hated the Jews as well. 

JD Vance has attacked what he called "moralism" in the context of wokeness. It's unclear if he realizes that there is a gaping contradiction in his view of "moralism". Does he believe in strict moral rules for citizens, or is he opposed to all rules?

This sort of binary thinking is, of course, the eternal flaw of political philosophers. "Is it better to drive a nail through my left hand", muses the philosopher, "or through my right hand?" The reality is that there are often more than two solutions, and this will also be true in the future conflict between moralism and amoralism. I happen to believe that government can uphold the rights of its citizens while imposing reasonable rules in a philosophically consistent matter, without either plunging into anarchy or a new dark age.
====== Conclusion: Must Democracy Die? NO! ======

Despite the fact that I have spoken authoritatively about these things, as if they were written in stone, I want to emphasize that we can stop this. These predictions are based off of the observation that most people have given up on the concept of America as an ideal worth fighting for. I don't mean that there aren't people who are waving the flag and chanting "USA! USA! USA!", but rather that we have given up on the basic virtues that make our country great. 

> We hold these truths to be self-evident: that all men are created equal, endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable rights, including the right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

If the land and the people of this country are its body, this statement is its soul. It doesn't describe who we are, rather, it describes who we aspire to be. The idea is this: "PEOPLE MATTER". It is an idea that transcends how we expect the government to treat us to being a conviction about how we should treat each other - black, white, jew, gentile, man, woman, christian, atheist, muslim, etc.

Compare with Benito Mussolini speaking about (national) socialism:

> Socialism is not Arcadian and peaceful. **We do not believe in the sacredness of human life.**

I reference this quote to make clear the fact that not everyone believes in the dignity of man. The end of liberal democracy will not be a restoration of fairness to any particular oppressed class (be they white or black), but rather an end to the very concept of fairness.

So what went wrong, that we developed this collective suicidal urge to dismantle our country? The problem isn't with the government, or some policy that was enacted, or some secret organization that's pulling the strings. The problem is //us//. We failed to keep the idea of Americanism alive. We became a country of people whose only relationship to it was that we lived here. We began to view our fellow countrymen less as brothers and more as obstacles on the way to wealth. We think as //our// rights as something we deserve, but of //their// rights as something that should be taken away if they make us uncomfortable.

"If a black man is gunned down without cause in the street by police, who cares? I'm not black. Doesn't affect me. If they shot at white people, then I would care, but the police will always be on my side so I don't have to worry about that."

We have become a country of cynics, both in philosophy and action. We believe that man is rotten, and thus we act rotten. We don't hesitate to kick our fellow man in the shins if we can slightly improve our standing -- after all, we reason, he would have done the same to us. This cynical philosophy becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you kick my shins, then I'm going to kick your shins, and we'll all be kicking each other's shins for no real reason.

Some people think that all of this is due to a decline of religion. While it is true that some religious people are very kind, altruistic, and civic-minded people, my anecdotal observations have revealed that religious people can personify the worst of this attitude. See, for instance, the rise of self-styled "christofascism" -- people calling for the extermination and brutal treatment of entire people groups with bible verses in their bio. Thus, I simply don't believe that making America a more Christian country will, in and of itself, solve this issue. 

My point is that you should be motivated to save this country. Yes, you should do this politically -- you should get out and vote, you should protest, heck, if it comes down to it, you might even need to fight for it. But you should also try to save the country non-politically, in your tiny, individualized way. Endeavor each day to treat your fellow man with respect and kindness. Outdo one another in love. That is how we begin to really heal the social fabric of this country.