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--- politics:predictions:2025 [2025/03/17 15:59] – Owen Mellema
+++ politics:predictions:2025 [2025/03/18 13:32] (current) – [The End of Democracy: My Prediction in 2025] Owen Mellema
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 Sometimes people ask me for my prediction for the future of our country. I imagine that they are annoyed when I don't give them a straight answer. I think about history as a series of decision points, and that what happens is a result of whatever happens at those decision points. So, I usually give a variety of different predictions, based on what happens at these decision points.
-My last such prediction was before the 2024 election. I had two predictions for the path that America could go down, depending on who was elected. I predicted that if the Democrats won, there would be a period of intense social unrest, chaos, and destabilization, which I called **the black state**. I also predicted that if the Republicans won, it would be curtains for democracy and so-called "liberal values", such as freedom of speech, freedom of the press, habeas corpus, etc, which I called **the grey state**. Always hopeful, I also maintained the possibility that there would be a countercultural movement that would be focused on love, brotherhood, and unity, which would reform the (in my opinion) suicidal attitude of this country, which I called **the white state**.
+My last such prediction was before the 2024 election. I had two predictions for the path that America could go down, depending on who was elected. I predicted that if the Democrats won, there would be a period of intense social unrest, chaos, and destabilization, which I called **the black state**. I also predicted that if the Republicans won, it would be curtains for democracy and so-called "liberal values", such as freedom of speech, freedom of the press, habeas corpus, etc, which I called **the grey state**.
 Obviously, the Republicans won, and therefore, I think we are headed towards the grey state. I think that a number of things could happen, but at this point I think that the most likely thing to happen is that the ideal of democracy will effectively end. Most people will stop believing it, and the government will become more and more authoritarian.
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 I hesitate to write this all down, because I believe that such predictions can become self-fulfilling prophecies. I believe that countries can develop a "suicidal urge", a belief that the country *must* end... but I don't necessarily think this is true. I think that We The People can decide to sustain the blessing of democracy, but that it will take a lot of effort. I encourage all of my readers to cast off apathy and decide to stand up for what they believe in.
-Consider this a warning about what might happen if we don't do better.
+Consider this a warning about what might happen if we don't do better. If you read nothing else here, please read my conclusion.
+One more thing: I am a loose political centrist. It might seem that I am very critical of Republicans while being gentle towards the Democrats. It is true that I think that the modern Republican party is devastatingly bad. However, I am not a Democrat. Indeed, I have traditionally been quite critical of the illiberal progressivism of the so-called woke left. This was one of the major reasons that I supported Trump wholeheartedly in 2016 (the other being that I was young and foolish). I now see the truth: The threat of illiberal conservatism entirely eclipses the threat of illiberal progressivism. I won't make that case in this article, however.
 ====== Two Futures ======
 I foresee two futures:
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 I project that in the 2026 midterm elections Democrats will sweep the nation. In fact, I project that even formerly red states will swing blue. I think this because, at the time of writing, Trumps tariffs seem to be hurting farmers quite a bit.
-That’s not even the decision point for me — the decision point is how Trump will react, and how the people will, in turn, react.
 I genuinely think there is a good chance that Trump will attempt to claim that these results were fraudulent, and instruct displaced legislators to remain in office. I am not sure he will do this, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he did. That’s why I have declared this to be the decision point.
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 ===== Why the Democrats will win in 2026 =====
-First, let me explain why I think Trump won. I don't think Trump won because people genuinely liked Trump. Instead, I think that Trump won for one very simple reason -- the economy was somewhat bad during some parts of Biden's presidency. This is not a political statement. I am not claiming that Biden enacted specific policies that caused the economy to be bad, I am simply claiming that it was bad at some parts of his presidency.
+First, let me explain why I think Trump won in 2024. I don't think Trump won because people genuinely liked Trump. Instead, I think that Trump won for one very simple reason -- the economy was somewhat bad during some parts of Biden's presidency. This is not a political statement. I am not claiming that Biden enacted specific policies that caused the economy to be bad, I am simply claiming that it was bad at some parts of his presidency.
 Wealth seems to be the single biggest predictor of well-being. People naturally want to exist in an environment where they can make a lot of money, and will vote to produce such an environment. I should point out, however, that average people seem to be very bad at evaluating how good or bad the economy actually is. A fascinating study showed that people on average thought that *they* were doing better than their peers financially, but that *most people* were not doing well. Obviously this cannot be true -- most people cannot be better than most people.
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 ===== Scenario: Trump Coup =====
-==== What will happen in this scenario ====
 There’s actually another decision point under this decision point, which is whether or not people care about the results of the midterm elections. Most people don’t, but I think that this would be so egregious that most everyone would be upset.
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 First of all, recall that in the 2020 election he did the exact same thing, staying in power until literally the last moment. He quite possibly only stepped down because his VP, Mike Pence, was against the nonsense with him staying in office. Now that his cabinet is filled with Yes-Men, all bets are off.
-It's unclear what Trump thinks is going on in the world, or if he is just cynically trying to remain in power. I don't know how he reconciles the idea that he was cheated out of the 2020 presidency with the fact that he won in 2024. I'm sure it's some "the power of love" type bullshit. Anyways, he and his gang genuinely do believe that the Democrats do this.
+It's unclear what Trump thinks is going on in the world, or if he is just cynically trying to remain in power. I don't know how he reconciles the idea that he was cheated out of the 2020 presidency with the fact that he won in 2024. I'm sure it's some "the power of love" type nonsense. Anyways, he and his gang genuinely do believe that the Democrats do this.
 Secondly, I think Trump is getting addicted to the feeling of absolute authority, and I think giving it up will be very difficult for him. This is a person that has basically restructured the entire government to control everything. He has a majority in the legislature, has removed anyone who is not a loyalist in the executive branch, and has declared that he has the absolute authority to interpret the law for the entire executive branch, rendering the judicial branch (and the legislative branch) vestigial. I'm genuinely not sure if the other branches can even control the executive branch anymore or if they are just a rubber stamp brigade.
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 I don't know if this will happen, and frankly no-one can predict whether it could happen or not. Such a prediction would by nature be based off of incomplete information.
+====== Sub-prediction: The Future of MAGA ======
+I didn't want to make a separate article for this, despite it being a different focus, but I would like to predict what will happen in the future of the MAGA ideology. I project that this movement will have a pretty dramatic schism in coming years (probably around 2028). The divide will be between what I call the "moralists" and the "amoralists".
+The "moralists" will be similar to traditional conservatives, who think that the government should institute moral rules to preserve a certain social order. This would include such things as banning gay marriage, pornography, and sex outside of marriage. The "amoralists", on the other hand, will be similar to libertarians, resisting all rules, even rules that are by liberal standards considered to be good, including pedophilia and rape. I have dubbed this theoretical group of amoralists the "Satanic Hyper-Pedophiles". This group will likely view acts of evil as a form of political praxis.
+This prediction is based on a political theory that I have, called //Shadow Politics//. The basic idea of Shadow Politics is that the main thing that political groups are trying to do is to perpetuate their own existence, not to effectuate political change. They do this by carefully balancing wins and losses to maintain enough controversy to keep them relevant. At times they will project their own "shadow self" onto the world, manifesting their own worst enemy. I believe this is the real reason that fascism is coming back in this country: It was the shadow of leftism.
+The shadow of the right is not leftism. Rather, it is what could be termed as "degeneracy", which they view to be an element of leftism. Thus, the future culture war will not be between right-wingers and leftists, but rather between the pure manifestation of degeneracy and the resistance to said degeneracy.
+//(I should clarify that I do not believe this group of people could have existed without the right creating them. This is an example of my theory of the cycle of authoritarianism: Power inadvertently creates a problem, and the existence of the problem causes authoritarians to believe they need more power, which creates even more problems. The same thing is true of liberals. If the democrats regain power, their takeaway from the rise of Trump will be that they need to use //more// power, not less, which will only make the situation worse.)//
+Already, the seeds for this conflict have been planted. Voices such as Andrew Tate are part of the "amoral right", advocating for war against society and rape, while organizations such as the Heritage Foundation form the backbone of the "moral right", advocating for restrictions to be placed on "degenerate behavior". Aesthetic fascists find themselves between both parties, sometimes appearing more amoral, sometimes appearing more moral.
+Furthermore, consider that what we consider "woke leftism" is merely a blurry picture of the last 2000 years of cultural development, arguably beginning with Christ. Thus, to the amoralists, the problem isn't the radical Left, but rather Christ himself. This, too, already is happening in small corners of the culture. Some neo-fascists have declared that the Christians are deceived by the Jewish lie of the Bible, and that they are all worshipping a lie crafted to enslave the white man, while others shoot back that, no, Jesus totally hated the Jews as well.
+JD Vance has attacked what he called "moralism" in the context of wokeness. It's unclear if he realizes that there is a gaping contradiction in his view of "moralism". Does he believe in strict moral rules for citizens, or is he opposed to all rules?
+This sort of binary thinking is, of course, the eternal flaw of political philosophers. "Is it better to drive a nail through my left hand", muses the philosopher, "or through my right hand?" The reality is that there are often more than two solutions, and this will also be true in the future conflict between moralism and amoralism. I happen to believe that government can uphold the rights of its citizens while imposing reasonable rules in a philosophically consistent matter, without either plunging into anarchy or a new dark age.
 ====== Conclusion: Must Democracy Die? NO! ======
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 So what went wrong, that we developed this collective suicidal urge to dismantle our country? The problem isn't with the government, or some policy that was enacted, or some secret organization that's pulling the strings. The problem is //us//. We failed to keep the idea of Americanism alive. We became a country of people whose only relationship to it was that we lived here. We began to view our fellow countrymen less as brothers and more as obstacles on the way to wealth. We think as //our// rights as something we deserve, but of //their// rights as something that should be taken away if they make us uncomfortable.
-"If a black man is gunned down without cause in the street by police, who cares? I'm not black. Doesn't effect me. If they shot at white people, then I would care, but the police will always be on my side so I don't have to worry about that."
+"If a black man is gunned down without cause in the street by police, who cares? I'm not black. Doesn't affect me. If they shot at white people, then I would care, but the police will always be on my side so I don't have to worry about that."
-We have become a country of cynics, both in philosophy and action. We believe that man is completely rotten, head to toe, and thus we act completely rotten. We don't hesitate to kick our fellow man in the shins if we can slightly improve our standing -- after all, we reason, he would have done the same to us. This cynical philosophy becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you kick my shins, then I'm going to kick your shins, and we'll all be kicking each other's shins for no real reason.
+We have become a country of cynics, both in philosophy and action. We believe that man is rotten, and thus we act rotten. We don't hesitate to kick our fellow man in the shins if we can slightly improve our standing -- after all, we reason, he would have done the same to us. This cynical philosophy becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you kick my shins, then I'm going to kick your shins, and we'll all be kicking each other's shins for no real reason.
-My point is that you should be motivated to save this country. Yes, you should do this politically -- you should get out and vote, you should protest, heck, if it comes down to it, you might even need to fight for it. But you should also try to save the country non-politically, in your tiny, individualized way. Endeavor each day to treat your fellow man with respect and kindness. Outdo one another in love. That is how we begin to really heal the social fabric of this country.
+Some people think that all of this is due to a decline of religion. While it is true that some religious people are very kind, altruistic, and civic-minded people, my anecdotal observations have revealed that religious people can personify the worst of this attitude. See, for instance, the rise of self-styled "christofascism" -- people calling for the extermination and brutal treatment of entire people groups with bible verses in their bio. Thus, I simply don't believe that making America a more Christian country will, in and of itself, solve this issue.
-I know this sounds like hippy crap, but we genuinely need to start taking things seriously, or the consequence is going to be an awful and anti-human society.
+My point is that you should be motivated to save this country. Yes, you should do this politically -- you should get out and vote, you should protest, heck, if it comes down to it, you might even need to fight for it. But you should also try to save the country non-politically, in your tiny, individualized way. Endeavor each day to treat your fellow man with respect and kindness. Outdo one another in love. That is how we begin to really heal the social fabric of this country.